Difference between revisions of "Team:SZU-China/Model"

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<h1> </h1>
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<p> </p>
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<h1 id="header">Model</h1>
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<p>We set up a mathematical model to predict the population dynamics of cockroaches before and after using our
+
product. By doing so, we can estimate the lethal time of our cockroaches terminator, analyse the relationships
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among each relative factors so as to modify our product.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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    <div class="navbar" style="top:5px;position:fixed;z-index:5">
<h2 id="Assumptions">Assumptions</h2>
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        <div class="navbar-nav">
<ul>
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            <ul id="nav-list-ul" class="nav-list">
<li>1. The number of cockroach has reached the highest value in stable stage</li>
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<li>2. Ignore natural birth and death rates in our system</li>
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<li>3. Infectious individuals can not recover</li>
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<li>4. Other factors that may affect the experiment are ignored</li>
+
</ul>
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<h2 id="Natural condition">Natural condition</h2>
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<p>In natural condition indoors, due to environmental resistance like food, water, space, the population of
+
cockroaches is more likely to follow a S-shaped growth curve (sigmoid growth curve), which can be formalized
+
mathematically by logistic function.</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-center">
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<img class="rounded" style="width: 420px;" src="../img/Model_1.png" />
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</div>
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<div>
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                <li>
<h2 id="With infection">With infection</h2>
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                    <a href="#">TEAM</a>
<p>Our model was constructed based on SIR epidemic model (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) , following are
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                    <span class="caret"></span>
some basic properties:</p>
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                    <ul class="sub-nav" style="top:-5px">
<ul>
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                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Team">MEMBERS</a></li>
<li>1. Naturally all cockroaches are susceptible individuals, they can infect by M.anisopliae becoming
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                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Collaborations">COLLABORATIONS</a></li>
infectious individuals.</li>
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                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Attributions">ATTRIBUTION</a></li>
<li>2. The number of individual being infected in a contact between a susceptible and an infectious subject is
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                    </ul>
simulate by standard incidence .</li>
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                </li>
<li>3. The transition rate between Infectious and dead is ��, its reciprocal (1/��) determines the average
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infectious period, which is estimate by experiment data.</li>
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</ul>
 
<div class="text-center">
 
<img width="560px" src="../img/Model_2.png" />
 
</div>
 
  
 +
                <li>
 +
                    <a href="#">PRACTICE</a>
 +
                    <span class="caret"></span>
 +
                    <ul class="sub-nav" style="top:-5px">
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/HP/Gold_Integrated">INTEGRATED HP</a></li>
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/HP/Silver">SILVER HP</a></li>
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Engagement">ENGAGEMENT</a></li>
 +
                    </ul>
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                </li>
  
</div>
 
<div>
 
<h2 id="Parameters">Parameters</h2>
 
<p>Model was simulate during 30 days, with total number of 60.</p>
 
<table class="table table-bordered">
 
<thead>
 
<tr class="table-active">
 
<th>Parameter</th>
 
<th>Value</th>
 
<th>Meaning</th>
 
</tr>
 
</thead>
 
<tbody class="text-center">
 
<tr>
 
<td>S(t)</td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td>the number of susceptible individuals over time</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>I(t)</td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td>the number of infectious individuals over time</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>D(t)</td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td>the number of dead individuals over time</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>��</td>
 
<td>0.75</td>
 
<td>transmission rate, which is the probability of getting the infection in a contact between susceptible and
 
an infectious</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>��</td>
 
<td>1/8</td>
 
<td>mortality, which is the the transition rate between I and D, its reciprocal (1/��) determines the average
 
infectious period</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>S(0)</td>
 
<td>55</td>
 
<td>the initial number of susceptible individuals</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>I(0)</td>
 
<td>5</td>
 
<td>the initial number of infectious individuals</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>r</td>
 
<td>0.3</td>
 
<td>growth rate</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>N=S+I</td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td>population size</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>K</td>
 
<td>70</td>
 
<td>carring capacity</td>
 
</tr>
 
</tbody>
 
</table>
 
<P>The system without so-called vital dynamics (birth and death) described above can be expressed by the
 
following set of ordinary differential equations:</P>
 
<p>This system is non-linear, and the analytic solution does not exist, but we can compute the numerical solution
 
by MATLAB. (see results)</p>
 
</div>
 
<div>
 
<h2 id="Results">Results</h2>
 
<p>The following curves show dynamics number change of each kinds of individuals. We see that the infectious
 
individuals grow fast before first 6 day, and then began to drop. The total number of cockroaches continuously
 
going down. We specify the median lethal time (LT50), which in this condition is 11.1 days.</p>
 
<div class="text-center">
 
<img class="rounded" style="width: 420px;" src="../img/Model_3.png" />
 
</div>
 
</div>
 
<div>
 
<h2 id="Sensitivity Analysis">Sensitivity Analysis</h2>
 
<p>We use sensitivity analysis to analyze the impacts of some important parameter values (��, ��) on our model
 
outcomes (LT50). The figures below show the tendency of dead number with respect to each parameter change. </p>
 
  
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                <li>
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                    <a href="#">EXPERIMENT</a>
 +
                    <span class="caret"></span>
 +
                    <ul class="sub-nav" style="top:-5px">
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Procedure">PROCEDURE</a></li>
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Results">RESULTS</a></li>
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Demonstrate">DEMONSTRATE</a></li>
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Protocol">PROTOCOL</a></li>
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Notebook">NOTEBOOK</a></li>
  
</div>
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                    </ul>
<div class="card-group">
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                </li>
<div class="card">
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                <li>
<div class="card-header">
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                    <a href="#">PROJECT</a>
<h3>1. change gamma</h3>
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                    <span class="caret"></span>
</div>
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                    <ul class="sub-nav" style="top:-5px">
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                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Description">DESCRIPTION</a></li>
  
<img class="card-img-top" style="width: 512px;" src="../img/Model_4.png" />
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                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Design">DESIGN</a></li>
<div class="card card-body">
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                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Model">MODEL</a></li>
<table>
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                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Safety">SAFTY</a></li>
<thead class="table table-active">
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                    </ul>
<tr>
+
                </li>
<th>change ��</th>
+
<th>��</th>
+
<th>��</th>
+
<th>LT50</th>
+
<th>��LT50</th>
+
<th>Ratio</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
+
<td>+20%</td>
+
<td>0.750</td>
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<td>0.150</td>
+
<td>10.100</td>
+
<td>0.090</td>
+
<td>0.450</td>
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</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td></td>
+
<td>0.075</td>
+
<td>0.125</td>
+
<td>11.100</td>
+
<td></td>
+
<td></td>
+
</tr>
+
<tr>
+
<td>-20%</td>
+
<td>0.750</td>
+
<td>0.100</td>
+
<td>12.700</td>
+
<td>0.138</td>
+
<td>0.690</td>
+
</tr>
+
  
</tbody>
 
</table>
 
</div>
 
</div>
 
<div class="card">
 
<div class="card-header">
 
<h3>2. change beta</h3>
 
</div>
 
<img class="card-img-top" style="width: 512px;" src="../img/Model_5.png" />
 
<div class="card card-body">
 
<table>
 
<thead class="table table-active">
 
<tr>
 
<th>change ��</th>
 
<th>��</th>
 
<th>��</th>
 
<th>LT50</th>
 
<th>��LT50</th>
 
<th>Ratio</th>
 
</tr>
 
</thead>
 
<tbody>
 
<tr>
 
<td>+20%</td>
 
<td>0.900</td>
 
<td>0.125</td>
 
<td>10.300</td>
 
<td>0.072</td>
 
<td>0.360</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td></td>
 
<td>0.750</td>
 
<td>0.125</td>
 
<td>11.100</td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td>-20%</td>
 
<td>0.600</td>
 
<td>0.125</td>
 
<td>12.400</td>
 
<td>0.117</td>
 
<td>0.585</td>
 
</tr>
 
  
</tbody>
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                <li>
</table>
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                    <a href="#">ACHIEVEMENT</a>
</div>
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                    <span class="caret"></span>
</div>
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                    <ul class="sub-nav" style="top:-5px">
</div>
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                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Achievement">MEDAL</a></li>
 +
                        <li><a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China/Parts">PARTS</a></li>
 +
                    </ul>
 +
                </li>
 +
            </ul>
 +
        </div>
 +
        <div>
 +
            <a href="https://2017.igem.org/Team:SZU-China"><img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2017/1/17/T--SZU-China--team-logo.png" style="height: 36px;width: auto;padding-top: 12px;padding-left:10px;"></a>
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        </div>
 +
    </div>
  
<div>
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    <div style="position: relative;top: 80px;">
 +
        <section id="overview" style="padding:96px 0 40px 0;background-color:white;">
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            <div class="container">
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                <div class="row">
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                    <div class="col-sm-12">
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                        <h3 class="uppercase color-primary mb40 " style="margin-bottom: 40px;font-size:50px"><center>MODEL</center> </h3>
  
</div>
 
<div>
 
  
</div>
+
                    </div>
<p>The last term Ratio is the normalized sensitivities-the ratio of the relative change of the output to the
+
                </div>
relative change of the parameter.</p>
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            </div>
</div>
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        </section>
</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-2">
 
  
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        <p></p><br /><br />
  
<ul class=" position-fixed border-left">
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        <section style="background-color: rgba(245,245,245,0.45); padding: 96px 0; ">
<p><a class="text-muted" href="#">Modle</a></p>
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            <div style="position: relative; margin: 30px 15%;">
<p><a class="text-muted" href="#Assumptions">Assumptions</a></p>
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                <center><p class="font1" style="font-weight: 500; text-align: center; font-size: 25px; color: rgb(75, 151, 165); ">Introduction</p></center><br /><br />
<p><a class="text-muted" href="#Natural condition">Natural condition</a></p>
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                <p style="font-size:16px">This year, our team creates a mathematical representation of our concrete self-healing system. This representation, or model, constructs a judging scale with which we can utilize to regulate the four main environmental factors affecting our final concrete healing efficiency (reflected by mineralization activity). </p><br /><br />
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                <p style="font-size:16px">
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                    The four factors are: <br /><img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2017/c/c6/T--SZU-China--equation.jpg " width="25%" /></br>
 +
                </p>
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">Based on this model, we can also design the best ‘package'– the microcapsule shells with adequate nutrition combination.</p>
 +
                <br />
 +
               
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">This modelling process, presented below, can be seen as a feedback from the wet lab (experiment result) and the dry lab(modelling analysis).</p><br /><br />
  
<p><a class="text-muted" href="#With infection">With infection</a></p>
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                <p style="font-size:16px">The following page shows how we conducted modelling approaches to achieve our goals. To begin with, we make some definition.</p><br /><br />
<p><a class="text-muted" href="#Parameters">Parameters</a></p>
+
                <br /><br />
<p><a class="text-muted" href="#Results">Results</a></p>
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                <center><span class="font1" style="font-weight: 500; text-align: center; font-size: 25px; color: rgb(75, 151, 165); ">Definition</span></center><br /><br />
<p><a class="text-muted" href="#Sensitivity Analysis">Sensitivity Analysis</a></p>
+
               
</ul>
+
                <br/><br/>
 +
                <ul style="font-size:16px;" class="def">Variables and nomenclature:<li>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;concentration of spores - c[Spore]</li> <li>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;concentration of carbon source(C3H5O3Na) - c[C3H5O3Na]</li><li> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;concentration of nitrogen source(NaNO3) - c[NaNO3]</li><li>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;pH of the media - pH</li></ul><br />
 +
                <ul style="font-size: 16px;" class="def">Goal of model:<li>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Use preliminary data to guide future experiments.</li></ul>
 +
                <br /><br />
 +
                <center><span class="font1" style="font-weight: 500; text-align: center; font-size: 25px; color: rgb(75, 151, 165); ">Procedure</span></center><br /><br />
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">
 +
                    1.&nbsp;&nbsp;Standardizing variables: transforming variables into the same scale. Here we utilize the z-score standardizing method, such that
 +
                </p>
 +
                <div style="text-align:center"><img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2017/0/07/T--SZU-China--standardization.jpg" width="30%" ><br /></div><br />
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">
 +
                    where the symbols in the formula are variable, standardized variable, sample mean, andstandard deviation respectively.
 +
                </p>
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">2.&nbsp;&nbsp;Fitting functions of each variable with polynomial function.</p>
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">3.&nbsp;&nbsp;Getting the overall relationship using linear least square method.</p><br /><br /><br />
 +
                <center> <span class="font1" style="font-weight: 500; text-align: center; font-size: 25px; color:rgb(75, 151, 165); ">Results</span></center><br /><br />
  
  
 +
                <div style="text-align: center;margin: 24px 0;z-index:-1;">
 +
                    <img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2017/2/24/T--SZU-China--model1.png " width="90%" style="box-shadow: 0px 0px 2px #1E1E1E;">
 +
                </div>
  
</div>
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                <p style="font-size:16px">The graph above depicts the polynomial regression of 4 factors. In general, for each of those four factors, the mineralization activity shows the similar tendency of going up first and down later with the increase of each factor.</p><br /><br />
  
    </div>
+
                <p style="font-size:16px">The fitted functions are showed as follows:</p>
 +
                <div style="text-align:center"><img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2017/1/1d/T--SZU-China--fitting.jpg" width="60%" ><br /></div>
 +
             
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">We then fitted x with y linearly to get the overall regression equation which can describe the weight of four variables respectively.</p><br /><br />
  
 +
                <center><span class="font1" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:16px">Overall regression equation:</span></center><br /><br />
 +
                <div style="text-align:center"><img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2017/a/ad/T--SZU-China--regression.jpg" width="60%" ><br /></div>
  
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">with</p><br /><br />
  
 +
                <div style="text-align:center"><img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2017/b/be/T--SZU-China--regressiontransform.jpg" width="30%" ><br /></div>
  
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">where a<sub>i1</sub>represents the coefficient of the highest power term of curve-fitting equation, such that the coefficient of the highest power term are of the same scale.</p><br /><br />
 +
                <br/>
  
 +
                <p style="font-size:16px">From the equation above, we can see that nitrogen source has the maximum weight, while pH has the minimum weight, which means nitrogen source is the most essential nutrition for B.subtilis spore. Additionally, the low weight of pH shows that spores are not sensitive to the change of pH in a relatively apt range, although there is a sharp decline in activity when pH reaches 11.</p><br />
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                <br /><p style="font-size:16px">In summary, as long as we keep the environment below the boundary high-pH point, it makes no much difference how much we have improved the alkaline resistance of <i>B.subtilis</i> spore. In this way, this model instructs us on how to modify our formulation, such that the ingredients can be made full use of.</p><br />
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Revision as of 14:58, 28 September 2018

MODEL



Introduction



This year, our team creates a mathematical representation of our concrete self-healing system. This representation, or model, constructs a judging scale with which we can utilize to regulate the four main environmental factors affecting our final concrete healing efficiency (reflected by mineralization activity).



The four factors are:

Based on this model, we can also design the best ‘package'– the microcapsule shells with adequate nutrition combination.


This modelling process, presented below, can be seen as a feedback from the wet lab (experiment result) and the dry lab(modelling analysis).



The following page shows how we conducted modelling approaches to achieve our goals. To begin with, we make some definition.





Definition




    Variables and nomenclature:
  •         concentration of spores - c[Spore]
  •         concentration of carbon source(C3H5O3Na) - c[C3H5O3Na]
  •         concentration of nitrogen source(NaNO3) - c[NaNO3]
  •          pH of the media - pH

    Goal of model:
  •         Use preliminary data to guide future experiments.


Procedure


1.  Standardizing variables: transforming variables into the same scale. Here we utilize the z-score standardizing method, such that



where the symbols in the formula are variable, standardized variable, sample mean, andstandard deviation respectively.

2.  Fitting functions of each variable with polynomial function.

3.  Getting the overall relationship using linear least square method.




Results


The graph above depicts the polynomial regression of 4 factors. In general, for each of those four factors, the mineralization activity shows the similar tendency of going up first and down later with the increase of each factor.



The fitted functions are showed as follows:


We then fitted x with y linearly to get the overall regression equation which can describe the weight of four variables respectively.



Overall regression equation:



with




where ai1represents the coefficient of the highest power term of curve-fitting equation, such that the coefficient of the highest power term are of the same scale.




From the equation above, we can see that nitrogen source has the maximum weight, while pH has the minimum weight, which means nitrogen source is the most essential nutrition for B.subtilis spore. Additionally, the low weight of pH shows that spores are not sensitive to the change of pH in a relatively apt range, although there is a sharp decline in activity when pH reaches 11.



In summary, as long as we keep the environment below the boundary high-pH point, it makes no much difference how much we have improved the alkaline resistance of B.subtilis spore. In this way, this model instructs us on how to modify our formulation, such that the ingredients can be made full use of.