Difference between revisions of "Team:Tokyo Tech/Model"

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                        Project</a><div class="dropdown-menu"><a class="text-white dropdown-item display-4" href="Project-Overview.html">Description</a><a class="text-white dropdown-item display-4" href="Basic-Parts.html">&nbsp;Parts</a><a class="text-white dropdown-item display-4" href="Collaboration.html" aria-expanded="false">Collaboration</a></div>
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<section class="engine"><a href="https://mobirise.info/n">free simple web templates</a></section><section class="header9 cid-r5el55DVH6 mbr-fullscreen" id="header9-g">
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            <h1 class="mbr-section-title align-left mbr-bold pb-3 mbr-fonts-style display-1">Modeling</h1>
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            <h3 class="mbr-section-subtitle align-left mbr-light pb-3 mbr-fonts-style display-2">Establishment of dengue virus serotype prediction and detection systems</h3>
  
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                 <h1 class="mbr-section-title align-center pb-3 mbr-fonts-style display-2">Introduction</h1>
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                <p class="mbr-text align-center display-5 pb-3 mbr-fonts-style display-7">Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that has rapidly spread in all regions of WHO in recent years. Dengue is widespread throughout the tropics, with local variations in risk influenced by rainfall, temperature and unplanned rapid urbanization.
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<br>There are 4 distinct, but closely related, serotypes of the virus that cause dengue (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4). Recovery from infection by one provides lifelong immunity against that particular serotype. However, cross-immunity to the other serotypes after recovery is only partial and temporary. Subsequent infections by other serotypes increase the risk of developing severe dengue. Severe dengue is a leading cause of serious illness and death among children in some Asian and Latin American countries.&nbsp;<br></p>
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                            <p class="mbr-text mb-0 mbr-fonts-style display-7"><br>Dengue virus, which is in the flavivirus family, is a worldwide spread virus and has huge impact on society, however, not many developing countries are recognizing its danger.<br><br></p>
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                <h1 class="mbr-section-title align-center pb-3 mbr-fonts-style display-2">Overview of the model</h1>
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                <p class="mbr-text align-center display-5 pb-3 mbr-fonts-style display-7">We predicted how the number of people infected with dengue virus and the proportion of each serotype changes by using a mathematical method, Simplex Projection to the data about the yearly occurrence of dengue serotypes by primary or secondary dengue infection in children in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999 and climate data in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999. We constructed a model that automatically predicts the number of infected individuals and the variation of each serotype from dengue fever dengue-infected subjects data and climate data.<br></p>
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                <h1 class="mbr-section-title align-center mbr-white pb-3 mbr-bold mbr-fonts-style display-5">Simplex projection</h1>
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                    <p class="mbr-text mbr-fonts-style display-7">Simplex projection, originally proposed by George Sugihara and Bob May in 1990 is a powerful tool for detecting patterns (chaos) in what otherwise appears to be randomness. Moreover, it will also tell you how complicated this pattern is, and then predict the future, often with far greater accuracy than any other technique. <br>Ignoring ties in distances, minimal distances, minimal weights and other potential hazards, the following algorithm performs Simplex projection to predict Tp time-steps ahead.<br></p>
 
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                <img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2018/b/bf/T--Tokyo_Tech--03simplexprojection-883x714.png" alt="Mobirise" title="" style="width: 60%;">
 
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             <div class="mbr-text col-12 col-md-8 mbr-fonts-style display-7">Dengue virus is unique in terms of its four different serotypes. Multiple infection can easily cause severe dengue, appearing hemorrhage and organ damage. It is important to grasp which serotype the patient is infected, however, there is not enough data about each serotype in a year.<div><br></div><div>To tackle the situation, we took the following two approaches.</div></div>
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                <h1 class="mbr-section-title align-center mbr-white pb-3 mbr-bold mbr-fonts-style display-5">Estimation of distribution of dengue serotypes</h1>
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                    <p class="mbr-text mbr-fonts-style display-7">We predicted how the number of people infected with dengue virus and the proportion of each serotype changes by using a mathematical method, Simplex Projection to the data about the yearly occurrence of dengue serotypes by primary or secondary dengue infection in children in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999 and climate data in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999.&nbsp;<br></p>
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                <h1 class="mbr-section-title align-center mbr-white pb-3 mbr-bold mbr-fonts-style display-5">Prediction model</h1>
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                     <li><span style="font-size: 1rem;"><strong>MODELLING</strong>&nbsp;- We succeeded in the development of the serotype prediction system using stochastic process analysis. This system can predict the patient's serotype by simulating the past data. </span><a href="https://mobirise.co/" style="font-size: 1rem; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Try it now!</a><br></li>
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                    <li><strong>FINDING FLAVI</strong>&nbsp;- We also developed the simple and fast testing kit that can detect serotype with fluorescence, so that we can check the patient easily and get enough data to estimate the patients’ serotypes more accurate. <a href="https://mobirise.co/">Try it now!</a></li>
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                     <p class="mbr-text mbr-fonts-style display-7">We created a prediction model that automatically predicts the number of infected individuals and the variation of each serotype from dengue fever dengue-infected subjects data and climate data. The GitHub repository is&nbsp;<a href="https://github.com/iGEMTokyoTech/Dengue-Prediction" target="_blank">here</a>.<br></p>
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             <div class="mbr-text col-12 col-md-8 mbr-fonts-style display-7">In the future, this system can contribute to other flavivirus detection system.<div><strong><br></strong></div></div>
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                <h1 class="mbr-section-title align-center pb-3 mbr-fonts-style display-2">Discussion</h1>
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Revision as of 10:55, 16 October 2018

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Modeling

Establishment of dengue virus serotype prediction and detection systems

Introduction

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that has rapidly spread in all regions of WHO in recent years. Dengue is widespread throughout the tropics, with local variations in risk influenced by rainfall, temperature and unplanned rapid urbanization.
There are 4 distinct, but closely related, serotypes of the virus that cause dengue (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4). Recovery from infection by one provides lifelong immunity against that particular serotype. However, cross-immunity to the other serotypes after recovery is only partial and temporary. Subsequent infections by other serotypes increase the risk of developing severe dengue. Severe dengue is a leading cause of serious illness and death among children in some Asian and Latin American countries. 

Overview of the model

We predicted how the number of people infected with dengue virus and the proportion of each serotype changes by using a mathematical method, Simplex Projection to the data about the yearly occurrence of dengue serotypes by primary or secondary dengue infection in children in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999 and climate data in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999. We constructed a model that automatically predicts the number of infected individuals and the variation of each serotype from dengue fever dengue-infected subjects data and climate data.

Simplex projection

Simplex projection, originally proposed by George Sugihara and Bob May in 1990 is a powerful tool for detecting patterns (chaos) in what otherwise appears to be randomness. Moreover, it will also tell you how complicated this pattern is, and then predict the future, often with far greater accuracy than any other technique.
Ignoring ties in distances, minimal distances, minimal weights and other potential hazards, the following algorithm performs Simplex projection to predict Tp time-steps ahead.

Mobirise

Estimation of distribution of dengue serotypes

We predicted how the number of people infected with dengue virus and the proportion of each serotype changes by using a mathematical method, Simplex Projection to the data about the yearly occurrence of dengue serotypes by primary or secondary dengue infection in children in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999 and climate data in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999. 

Mobirise

Prediction model

We created a prediction model that automatically predicts the number of infected individuals and the variation of each serotype from dengue fever dengue-infected subjects data and climate data. The GitHub repository is here.

Mobirise

Discussion

Reference

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