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Revision as of 11:18, 16 October 2018
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Modeling
Establishment of dengue virus serotype prediction and detection systems
Introduction
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that has rapidly spread in all regions of WHO in recent years. Dengue is widespread throughout the tropics, with local variations in risk influenced by rainfall, temperature and unplanned rapid urbanization.
There are 4 distinct, but closely related, serotypes of the virus that cause dengue (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4). Recovery from infection by one provides lifelong immunity against that particular serotype. However, cross-immunity to the other serotypes after recovery is only partial and temporary. Subsequent infections by other serotypes increase the risk of developing severe dengue. Severe dengue is a leading cause of serious illness and death among children in some Asian and Latin American countries.
Overview of the model
We predicted how the number of people infected with dengue virus and the proportion of each serotype changes by using a mathematical method, Simplex Projection to the data about the yearly occurrence of dengue serotypes by primary or secondary dengue infection in children in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999 and climate data in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999. We constructed a model that automatically predicts the number of infected individuals and the variation of each serotype from dengue fever dengue-infected subjects data and climate data.
Simplex projection
Simplex projection, originally proposed by George Sugihara and Bob May in 1990 is a powerful tool for detecting patterns (chaos) in what otherwise appears to be randomness. Moreover, it will also tell you how complicated this pattern is, and then predict the future, often with far greater accuracy than any other technique.
Ignoring ties in distances, minimal distances, minimal weights and other potential hazards, the following algorithm performs Simplex projection to predict Tp time-steps ahead.
Estimation of distribution of dengue serotypes
We predicted how the number of people infected with dengue virus and the proportion of each serotype changes by using a mathematical method, Simplex Projection to the data about the yearly occurrence of dengue serotypes by primary or secondary dengue infection in children in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999 and climate data in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999.
Prediction model
We created a prediction model that automatically predicts the number of infected individuals and the variation of each serotype from dengue fever dengue-infected subjects data and climate data. The GitHub repository is here.
Discussion
Reference
