Team:Cardiff Wales/Model

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Cardiff iGEM 2018

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Modelling

As part of our project, we decided to create several models to test the potential outcomes of the application of our siRNAs. We first proposed a laboratory model, analogous to the aphid toxicity assay that we would have performed had he had enough time in the lab. This experiment, would have had about 10 aphids placed on a transgenic leaf disc, with nymphs being moved onto another leaf disc when they were born, assuming a generation time of about 6 days, with no predation or aphid migration due to it being a controlled environment. We could then model the population dynamics given a set toxicity of our siRNA constructs, where 0% toxicity is the experiment on control leaves that do not have the siRNAs, and then simulations with increasing toxicity of the siRNAs, where it reduces aphid birth rate (as we assume that the bacteriocytes are essential for normal development). This model can be run for an arbitrary number of generations, each of arbitrary length. We have a second model, in greenhouse conditions, where we propose that there are aphids present, but predation is also present, and migration absent, as it is separate from the outside world. In this model, the aphids are not moved to leaf discs in each generation, and the number of plants is also taken into account. This allows us to model the aphid, predator, and crop population dynamics, showing which factors are of most importance. Finally, we have a fourth model in a field, identical to the greenhouse model but with migration of aphids added. The embedded PDF below shows all of these models and their variations, with each of the mathematical parameters and any assumptions that were made. The PDF was compiled using LaTeX.